Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:23:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
0A 0x0a1c…b465 sports 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,623 (+12%) realized +$3,618 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate73%22W / 8L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$970per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$337est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,688now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,128
14 days+$1,571
30 days+$1,978
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,464
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +13.9% +3.1% 83% 83% +10.7%
≤30d 22 +21.0% +9.5% 73% 73% -0.8%
≤90d 30 +21.8% +10.2% 73% 73% +1.1%
all 30 +21.8% +10.2% 73% 73% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.2% 73% +1.1%
10% -0.4% 63% -8.5%
15% -10.0% 57% -17.4%
20% -18.8% 43% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +57% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$578 vs −$1,157 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$1,688
Realized+$3,618
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses22 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$337
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage35d
Avg bet$970
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C UCAM Esports Club 75¢ 74¢ $874 $856 −$17 (-2%)
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season ONSIDE GAMING 54¢ 56¢ $809 $832 +$22 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) Jun 18 $1,507 +$569 +38%
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 18 $1,806 +$493 +27%
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $185 +$37 +20%
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $201 +$40 +20%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $750 +$590 +79%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $457 +$443 +97%
Valorant: BOOM Esports vs Sharper Esport (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: P Jun 07 $612 −$612 -100%
Valorant: Riddle vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 07 $1,264 −$1,264 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualif Jun 07 $1,512 −$1,512 -100%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs Jun 07 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha Jun 07 $1,031 −$1,031 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 07 $1,500 +$674 +45%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan Jun 05 $1,875 +$673 +36%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Gold vs Ghost Gaming GC (BO3) - VCT Game C Jun 04 $1,125 +$388 +34%
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs REJECT (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 03 $760 +$580 +76%
Map Handicap: OX (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 02 $622 +$269 +43%
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 01 $625 +$1,269 +203%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas May 29 $764 +$1,263 +165%
Valorant: Grizzly Gang vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regula May 26 $376 +$77 +20%
Valorant: JD Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act 2 May 24 $626 +$333 +53%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA May 24 $762 +$801 +105%
Valorant: Joblife vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group D May 22 $2,001 +$1,391 +70%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs WIP Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group C May 21 $1,000 +$563 +56%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group A May 21 $1,499 +$1,257 +84%
Valorant: MIR vs WIP Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group C May 20 $196 +$121 +62%
Valorant: University War vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R May 20 $756 −$756 -100%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group A May 20 $1,977 −$1,977 -100%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Gro May 19 $835 +$518 +62%
Map Handicap: JL (-1.5) vs Ghools Esports (+1.5) May 18 $629 +$362 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY UCAM Esports Club 75¢ $880 1h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY ONSIDE GAMING 54¢ $129 18h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY ONSIDE GAMING 54¢ $88 18h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY ONSIDE GAMING 54¢ $112 18h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY ONSIDE GAMING 54¢ $32 19h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY ONSIDE GAMING 54¢ $13 19h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY ONSIDE GAMING 54¢ $55 19h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY ONSIDE GAMING 54¢ $50 20h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY ONSIDE GAMING 54¢ $256 20h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY ONSIDE GAMING 54¢ $74 20h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 78¢ $17 4d
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 78¢ $41 4d
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 78¢ $5 4d
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 78¢ $5 4d
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 78¢ $20 4d
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 78¢ $20 4d
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 78¢ $447 4d
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 80¢ $270 4d
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY LYON 76¢ $6 4d
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY LYON 73¢ $74 4d
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY LYON 72¢ $22 4d
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY LYON 74¢ $199 4d
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY LYON 74¢ $100 4d
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY LYON 76¢ $244 4d
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 77¢ $244 4d
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 77¢ $107 4d
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY University War 77¢ $99 4d
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY LYON 74¢ $373 4d
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 1 Winner BUY University War 86¢ $17 4d
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 2 Winner BUY University War 83¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,687.87 · official $1,687.87 (match) · 230 history records