Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:28:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0A 0x0a19…ad3a sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$24 (+18%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$35
other 37% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +47.9% +33.8% 100% 100% +37.3%
≤30d 4 +47.9% +33.8% 100% 100% +37.3%
≤90d 4 +47.9% +33.8% 100% 100% +37.3%
all 4 +47.9% +33.8% 100% 100% +37.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.8% 100% +37.3%
10% +21.0% 100% +24.1%
15% +9.3% 100% +12.1%
20% -1.4% 25% +1.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage2d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $50 +$35 +70%
Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 29 $25 +$10 +40%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $35 +$16 +46%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $25 +$9 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 100¢ $35 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 10h
Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 71¢ $25 23h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL South Africa 100¢ $51 23h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY South Africa 68¢ $35 33h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 95¢ $34 40h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 69¢ $25 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records