Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:22:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0A 0x0a18…c02b crypto 163 markets active 8d ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (200 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,807 (+29%) realized +$76 · open +$1,731
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%128W / 402L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day199.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$252,305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$1,731
crypto 2% +$5,245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (200 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 444 -22.7% -30.0% 10% 10% -65.1%
≤30d 530 +20.8% +9.3% 24% 24% -62.2%
≤90d 530 +20.8% +9.3% 24% 24% -62.2%
all 530 +20.8% +9.3% 24% 24% -62.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover199.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.3% 24% -62.2%
10% ← realistic here -1.1% 24% -65.9%
15% -10.7% 24% -69.2%
20% -19.5% 23% -72.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$689 vs −$513 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$252,305
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$1,731
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses128 / 402
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Open positions56
Markets (closed)530 / 163
History coverage6d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day199.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 530 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $22,680 $23,201 +$521 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 72¢ $16,536 $18,692 +$2,156 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 100¢ $15,377 $18,528 +$3,151 (+20%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $14,880 $15,869 +$989 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 56¢ $14,871 $14,592 −$279 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $14,121 $14,381 +$260 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 29? No 87¢ 66¢ $15,650 $11,741 −$3,909 (-25%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 42¢ 38¢ $12,523 $11,156 −$1,367 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 88¢ 100¢ $9,219 $10,404 +$1,186 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $10,183 $10,389 +$205 (+2%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $8,984 $9,494 +$510 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $8,885 $9,460 +$575 (+6%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 100¢ $8,386 $9,188 +$802 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $7,575 $8,034 +$459 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $6,999 $7,120 +$121 (+2%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $6,383 $6,935 +$552 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $6,038 $6,183 +$145 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $5,195 $5,503 +$308 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $4,832 $5,028 +$196 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 88¢ 100¢ $3,994 $4,530 +$536 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 86¢ 100¢ $3,897 $4,527 +$630 (+16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $3,131 $3,322 +$191 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 23¢ 13¢ $5,216 $2,999 −$2,217 (-43%)
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 June 29-July 5? Yes 57¢ 72¢ $2,027 $2,593 +$566 (+28%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 88¢ $2,168 $2,581 +$413 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 442 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 29 $24,190 −$28,369 -117%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? Jun 29 $2,738 +$10,742 +392%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 3? Jun 29 $254 +$236 +93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on June 2? Jun 29 $25 +$705 +2878%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 29 $10,146 −$9,181 -90%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 3? Jun 29 $16,964 −$16,964 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? Jun 29 $1,334 +$8,522 +639%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18? Jun 29 $8,479 −$8,484 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 29 $4,143 −$4,082 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? Jun 29 $477 −$315 -66%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? Jun 29 $994 +$1,899 +191%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 29 $4,860 −$7,241 -149%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 29 $5,574 −$5,411 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23? Jun 29 $594 −$594 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $4,433 −$4,433 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 7? Jun 29 $332 −$247 -74%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 24? Jun 29 $522 −$161 -31%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? Jun 29 $5,746 −$6,150 -107%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 29 $2,754 −$2,732 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 22-28? Jun 29 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 4? Jun 29 $590 +$3,605 +611%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 2? Jun 29 $2,069 +$948 +46%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on June 1? Jun 29 $3,708 −$3,812 -103%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 29 $1,907 −$1,832 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 5? Jun 29 $3,900 −$4,305 -110%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 29 $1,377 +$1,139 +83%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 29 $1,062 +$313 +30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 18? Jun 29 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 29 $4,213 −$6,695 -159%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 4? Jun 29 $191 +$2,851 +1492%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 29 $294 +$3,698 +1259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $2,152 −$2,093 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? Jun 29 $2,770 −$2,832 -102%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 29 $152 +$5,162 +3389%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? Jun 29 $2,939 −$2,977 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $2,020 −$2,020 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1? Jun 29 $1,743 −$3,865 -222%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 31? Jun 29 $1,241 +$1,005 +81%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on June 2? Jun 29 $1,239 −$1,239 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $430 −$430 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 25-31? Jun 29 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 2? Jun 29 $222 +$597 +270%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21? Jun 29 $346 +$244 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $595 −$595 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $1,476 −$1,476 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $1,445 −$1,445 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 29 $343 +$218 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $1,457 −$1,457 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $734 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $9 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $7 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $9 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $9 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1,028 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1,035 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $14 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $14 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $252,304.59 · official $0.00 · 1288 history records