Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:21:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

0A 0x0a18…99c9 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$97 (-1%) realized −$59 · open −$38

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate48%10W / 11L

Whale WR60%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$485per market

Trades / day10.5pace

Fees−$36est.

Kalshi-fit55%portable

Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-22.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-14.2%	-22.4%	48%	38%	-10.4%
≤30d	21	-14.2%	-22.4%	48%	38%	-10.4%
≤90d	21	-14.2%	-22.4%	48%	38%	-10.4%
all	21	-14.2%	-22.4%	48%	38%	-10.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-22.4%	38%	-10.4%
10%	-29.8%	24%	-19.0%
15%	-36.6%	19%	-26.8%
20%	-42.8%	14%	-34.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 71% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +12% → late -38% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$186 vs −$179 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.95 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$42

Realized−$59

Unrealized−$38

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses10 / 11

Whale WR (big bets)60%

Est. fees paid−$36

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage5d

Avg bet$485

Trades / day10.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	Yes	35¢	18¢	$80	$42	−$38 (-47%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$51	+$34	+67%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$448	+$130	+29%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$30	−$11	-37%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$46	−$21	-45%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$46	−$45	-98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$46	−$45	-98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$45	+$7	+14%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 18	$46	−$10	-22%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$41	−$40	-98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$46	−$45	-99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$1,158	−$19	-2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$91	+$36	+40%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$137	+$95	+70%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$46	$0	-1%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$153	−$60	-39%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$2,942	+$67	+2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$201	+$43	+21%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$102	+$5	+5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$603	+$121	+20%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$1,114	+$1,325	+119%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$3,200	−$1,669	-52%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	86¢	$201	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$51	1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	76¢	$201	1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	46¢	$19	9h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	71¢	$30	9h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	28¢	$25	9h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$46	10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	45¢	$46	10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	42¢	$46	10h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$46	10h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	87¢	$45	33h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL Yes	13¢	$1	33h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL Yes	36¢	$33	34h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$46	42h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	30¢	$41	42h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$46	42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$91	2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	61¢	$46	2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	8¢	$46	2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	57¢	$91	2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$46	2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$907	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	89¢	$201	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	88¢	$602	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL No	12¢	$40	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL No	12¢	$35	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	13¢	$51	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL No	61¢	$156	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	58¢	$304	3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	37¢	$89	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.29 · official $42.29 (match) · 56 history records