Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:31:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0A 0x0a18…ba41 other 547 markets active 2h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,394 (-7%) realized −$1,394 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%292W / 255L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$102
14 days+$102
30 days+$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$1,268
sports 42% −$106
world 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$5
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +17.4% +6.3% 65% 59% +1.0%
≤30d 17 +17.4% +6.3% 65% 59% +1.0%
≤90d 49 -7.1% -15.9% 55% 43% -8.6%
all 547 -6.1% -15.0% 53% 42% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 42% -15.5%
10% -23.2% 35% -23.6%
15% -30.6% 29% -31.0%
20% -37.4% 22% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$19 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,394
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses292 / 255
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)547 / 547
History coverage332d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 547 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $29 +$35 +118%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $79 +$10 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $49 +$31 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $93 +$56 +60%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $27 −$15 -54%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$14 -43%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$12 +130%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $68 −$59 -86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $52 +$15 +29%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $145 +$8 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $48 −$4 -8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $72 +$27 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $51 +$21 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$28 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $52 −$36 -70%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $21 +$1 +6%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 13 $54 −$54 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $50 +$3 +6%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $59 −$8 -13%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $35 +$25 +71%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $25 +$10 +38%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $40 −$15 -38%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $25 +$15 +59%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 07 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $19 −$19 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $100 +$24 +24%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $19 +$1 +4%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 04 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $8 +$13 +161%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 May 03 $10 −$7 -69%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 03 $4 +$1 +26%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? May 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titans Apr 29 $5 $0 +7%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 18 $11 −$6 -51%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 10 $25 −$3 -10%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $26 +$9 +33%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $5 +$2 +37%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Mar 20 $9 +$6 +64%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Mar 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $64 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $9 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 88¢ $79 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $80 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $49 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $148 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $93 9h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 27¢ $13 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $27 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 32¢ $18 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $11 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $21 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $9 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $68 36h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $68 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $52 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $153 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $45 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 62¢ $45 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $48 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $100 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $72 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $73 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $51 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1489 history records