Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a0f…7f95 crypto 576 markets active 3d ago coverage 389d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,398 (-5%) realized −$1,398 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate71%410W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,418
other 0% −$9
world 0% −$11
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -3.2% -12.4% 55% 40% -20.4%
≤30d 20 -3.2% -12.4% 55% 40% -20.4%
≤90d 69 -3.8% -13.0% 57% 52% -5.6%
all 576 -3.7% -12.8% 71% 27% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 27% -13.8%
10% -21.2% 20% -22.1%
15% -28.8% 16% -29.6%
20% -35.8% 13% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$30 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

389d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,398
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses410 / 166
Open positions0
Markets (closed)576 / 576
History coverage389d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 576 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$11 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$11 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 24 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 21 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 21 $11 +$10 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 21 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 21 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 21 $10 +$14 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 21 $20 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 21 $10 +$14 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 21 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 21 $99 +$35 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 21 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 21 $20 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 21 $57 +$48 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 21 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 21 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 21 $40 +$17 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 21 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 21 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 21 $20 +$25 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 21 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 21 $60 +$36 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 21 $30 +$34 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 3AM ET Apr 21 $105 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 21 $24 −$24 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2461 history records