Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a0f…6602 crypto 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$79 (-8%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%19W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days−$122
14 days−$218
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -50.4% -55.2% 25% 25% -55.0%
≤30d 22 -58.2% -62.2% 23% 23% -61.8%
≤90d 58 -36.0% -42.1% 33% 33% -29.6%
all 58 -36.0% -42.1% 33% 33% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.1% 33% -29.6%
10% -47.6% 33% -36.4%
15% -52.7% 29% -42.5%
20% -57.3% 26% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses19 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage57d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$8 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$9 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$32 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$13 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 04 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 04 $31 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 11 $47 +$38 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 11 $63 +$21 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 11 $30 +$17 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 11 $32 +$22 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 11 $21 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 11 $32 +$30 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 11 $10 +$16 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 11 $11 +$28 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 11 $5 +$8 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 11 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 20 $30 +$16 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 20 $6 +$9 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $16 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $19 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 165 history records