Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:41:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0A 0x0a0c…d2c8 other 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate15%14W / 80L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$3
politics 19% −$4
sports 6% −$4
economics 5% −$1
tech 3% −$1
culture 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -7.2% -16.0% 14% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 94 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 11% -9.6%
all 94 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 11% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 11% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 11% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses14 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage85d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $137 $136 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $287 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $241 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 05 $56 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 05 $89 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $50 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $48 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $313 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 21 $294 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 20 $298 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $243 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 16 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $248 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $239 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $241 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $239 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $963 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $484 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $238 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $235 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $443 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $249 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $238 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $238 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $257 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $237 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $265 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $288 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $241 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $242 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $264 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $258 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $239 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $256 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $262 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 11 $448 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 10 $264 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $261 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 10 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 10 $471 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 10 $257 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $78 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $137 12h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 4d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $31 4d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 10d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 10d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 20d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 20d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 21d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 22d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $47 23d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $48 23d
Will Solana reach $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $89 26d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $51 26d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $51 26d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $30 27d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $30 27d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 61¢ $19 28d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $49 28d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $49 29d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 29d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 29d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $243 32d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $243 32d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $241 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.12 · official $214.12 (match) · 264 history records