Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a0c…a853 weather 753 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$562 (+6%) realized +$52 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%239W / 491L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day451.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,251
7 days+$73
14 days+$52
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$3,131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 728 -5.7% -14.7% 33% 32% -14.9%
≤30d 730 -6.0% -14.9% 33% 32% -15.1%
≤90d 730 -6.0% -14.9% 33% 32% -15.1%
all 730 -6.0% -14.9% 33% 32% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover451.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 32% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 31% -23.2%
15% -30.5% 30% -30.7%
20% -37.3% 19% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late -75% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$9 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses239 / 491
Open positions38
Markets (closed)730 / 753
History coverage7d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day451.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 730 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $15 $44 +$29 (+194%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+86%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? No 61¢ 88¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? No 54¢ 57¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? No 72¢ 75¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 74¢ 77¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 64¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? No 69¢ 70¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? No 73¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? No 74¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? No 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? No 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? No 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? No 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? No 85¢ 83¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 15? No 59¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? No 71¢ 67¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? Jun 15 $15 +$58 +388%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 3? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 22? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 7? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 26? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? Jun 15 $15 −$12 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on May 26? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 29? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 23? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 1? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 2? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 27? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 4? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 6? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 15 $0 +$3 +1338%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 22? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 29? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 25? Jun 15 $18 −$19 -104%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 23? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 25? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on June Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 29? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 3? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 25? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on May 28? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 23? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on May 21? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ma Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 28? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 21? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on May 31? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 6? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 4? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 8? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 27? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 21? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 30? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 64¢ $4 2m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $4 7m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 61¢ $5 9m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 61¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $5 20m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 20m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $5 31m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 52¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.51 · official $215.25 (match) · 3500 history records