Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:19:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0a0a…c19e sports 231 markets active 1h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$329 (+14%) realized +$329 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%116W / 115L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days+$226
14 days+$226
30 days+$291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$275
other 24% +$24
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +38.1% +25.0% 69% 62% +39.9%
≤30d 39 +7.8% -2.4% 56% 51% +9.9%
≤90d 51 +7.8% -2.5% 59% 55% +9.6%
all 231 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 44% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 44% +2.3%
10% -18.3% 35% -7.5%
15% -26.2% 29% -16.4%
20% -33.4% 22% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$329
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses116 / 115
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)231 / 231
History coverage202d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 231 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 +$60 +226%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$54 +213%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $65 +$58 +89%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $32 −$17 -54%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -83%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$20 +66%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $16 +$17 +105%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $17 +$19 +112%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $40 +$9 +22%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $34 +$22 +63%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 +$2 +6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $16 +$11 +66%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $35 +$11 +30%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $55 +$6 +11%
Will AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? May 24 $21 −$7 -34%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score May 24 $40 −$40 -99%
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 24 $15 −$13 -88%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $202 +$117 +58%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $86 −$85 -98%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? May 24 $21 −$16 -75%
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score May 23 $68 +$34 +51%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score May 23 $41 +$26 +63%
Will SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? May 23 $15 −$1 -8%
SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: Both Teams to Score May 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? May 23 $121 +$44 +36%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 22 $41 +$10 +24%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to Score May 22 $20 +$2 +10%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $36 +$6 +16%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $20 +$36 +177%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $19 +$22 +111%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $31 −$11 -35%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $20 +$7 +32%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $3 −$1 -41%
Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to Score May 17 $10 +$8 +78%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $31 +$20 +65%
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score May 17 $23 +$9 +40%
Will Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? May 17 $16 −$13 -83%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? May 16 $40 +$23 +57%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score May 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score May 15 $27 +$13 +48%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 14 $17 +$11 +62%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score May 13 $36 +$5 +14%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 11 $23 −$11 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 38m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $27 22h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $80 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $123 38h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $65 47h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 47h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $32 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $50 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $16 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $37 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $17 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL No 83¢ $31 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL No 82¢ $18 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $40 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $56 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $34 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 26¢ $12 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $33 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $27 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $16 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL No 87¢ $46 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $35 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 497 history records