trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 77¢ | 76¢ | $100,000 | $98,713 | −$1,287 (-1%) |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Trump say "Mental Institution" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25? | Yes | 66¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 27? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET | Down | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET | Mar 25 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Mental Institution" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25? | Mar 25 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 27? | Mar 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Mar 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | Mar 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | Mar 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Mar 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Mar 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Mar 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | Mar 25 | $6 | +$2 | +32% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET | Feb 13 | $120 | −$120 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET | Feb 13 | $21 | −$1 | -5% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET | Feb 13 | $840 | −$840 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET | Feb 13 | $111 | −$111 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET | Feb 13 | $241 | −$241 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET | Feb 13 | $600 | +$302 | +50% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 10 | -86.8% | -88.0% | 10% | 10% | -86.9% |
| all | 16 | -82.3% | -84.0% | 12% | 12% | -58.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -84.0% | 12% | -58.2% |
| 10% | -85.6% | 12% | -62.2% |
| 15% | -87.0% | 6% | -65.8% |
| 20% | -88.2% | 6% | -69.2% |