Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a04…945d crypto 1180 markets active 5d ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (284 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$609 (-2%) realized −$609 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%734W / 533L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day284.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,454
sports 1% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (284 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 -49.6% -54.4% 30% 24% -43.9%
≤30d 1267 -8.7% -17.4% 58% 52% -18.3%
≤90d 1267 -8.7% -17.4% 58% 52% -18.3%
all 1267 -8.7% -17.4% 58% 52% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover284.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 52% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 30% -26.1%
15% -32.6% 14% -33.2%
20% -39.2% 6% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$609
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses734 / 533
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1267 / 1180
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day284.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1267 Trades
no open positions (196 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$40 -228%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$8 -206%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$35 -170%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$10 -248%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$21 -122%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$23 -124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$23 -107%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$8 -147%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$22 -148%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 5d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 13¢ $3 5d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 13¢ $3 5d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 13¢ $3 5d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 14¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $133 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $61 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $73 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $32 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $71 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.23 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records