Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:03:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a00…51b2 crypto 1038 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$349 (-6%) realized −$349 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate64%668W / 370L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day42.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$30
14 days+$22
30 days−$754
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$506
sports 5% +$8
world 0% −$5
finance 0% +$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -1.3% -10.7% 87% 18% -7.9%
≤30d 610 -22.0% -29.4% 53% 33% -25.7%
≤90d 1038 -7.0% -15.8% 64% 36% -16.7%
all 1038 -7.0% -15.8% 64% 36% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 36% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 22% -24.7%
15% -31.2% 13% -32.0%
20% -38.0% 7% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$349
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses668 / 370
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1038 / 1038
History coverage49d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day42.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1038 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $82 −$9 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $119 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $111 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $109 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $110 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $109 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $108 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $106 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2727 history records