Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:11:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x09ef…e6b7 crypto 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$38 (+11%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%40W / 36L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$13
14 days+$22
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +3.3% -6.6% 54% 51% -5.7%
≤30d 76 +5.9% -4.2% 53% 50% -2.6%
≤90d 76 +5.9% -4.2% 53% 50% -2.6%
all 76 +5.9% -4.2% 53% 50% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 50% -2.6%
10% -13.4% 49% -11.9%
15% -21.8% 43% -20.4%
20% -29.4% 41% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses40 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage18d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 43¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$3 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +138%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$13 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$2 +155%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $40 +$33 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$8 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $28 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $22 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.17 · official $1.15 (match) · 161 history records