Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:39:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09ec…7db8 crypto 439 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$125 (+0%) realized +$88 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%225W / 197L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day81.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$602now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$4,340
other 6% −$368
sports 3% +$46
politics 0% +$1
tech 0% −$35
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -7.9% -16.7% 59% 59% -29.1%
≤30d 384 -4.6% -13.7% 53% 47% -18.3%
≤90d 422 -6.1% -15.1% 53% 46% -18.1%
all 422 -6.1% -15.1% 53% 46% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 46% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 39% -26.0%
15% -30.6% 29% -33.1%
20% -37.4% 19% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$103 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$602
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses225 / 197
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions16
Markets (closed)422 / 439
History coverage30d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day81.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 422 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 26¢ 40¢ $160 $243 +$83 (+52%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 100¢ $40 $69 +$29 (+72%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 54¢ 14¢ $95 $26 −$69 (-73%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 65¢ 61¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 60¢ 54¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Junior win Colombia Primera A? Yes 91¢ 50¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 167 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $313 −$179 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $209 −$45 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $208 +$73 +35%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $106 +$81 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$29 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$14 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$40 +40%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $122 −$120 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$7 +33%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,261 +$494 +39%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$13 +129%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$35 -95%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $111 −$110 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $201 −$190 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$40 -94%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$23 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$40 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $615 −$606 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $611 −$192 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $93 −$60 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $799 +$471 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $593 −$200 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $283 −$270 -95%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $100 −$98 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $42 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $83 −$39 -47%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $105 +$97 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $166 −$160 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$24 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 6m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 54¢ $96 15m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $163 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $140 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $76 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $186 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $123 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $601.52 · official $631.52 · 2671 history records