Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:08:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09e7…f753 sports 729 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$42 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate87%625W / 95L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,668now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$85
14 days+$125
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$290
crypto 37% +$165
world 9% −$82
other 7% +$54
economics 4% +$68
culture 1% +$19
politics 0% +$6
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +4.9% -5.0% 100% 12% -7.0%
≤30d 47 +5.0% -5.0% 100% 13% -7.2%
≤90d 103 +2.2% -7.6% 99% 8% -7.7%
all 720 -2.3% -11.6% 87% 17% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 17% -9.6%
10% -20.1% 8% -18.3%
15% -27.8% 4% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$16 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$1,668
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses625 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)720 / 729
History coverage169d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 720 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $301 $320 +$19 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 57¢ $299 $261 −$38 (-13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $244 $246 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $168 $170 +$3 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $162 $162 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $143 $146 +$3 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $142 $146 +$4 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $120 $118 −$2 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 28? Jun 29 $7 $0 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $250 +$5 +2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $47 +$4 +8%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 26? Jun 27 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $245 +$5 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $335 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $187 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $167 +$3 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $78 +$2 +2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $36 +$4 +10%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 $0 +3%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $15 +$4 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $119 +$6 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $217 +$3 +2%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 24 $9 +$1 +12%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $9 +$1 +12%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $138 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $198 +$2 +1%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $120 +$8 +7%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $77 +$2 +3%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $189 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $171 +$7 +4%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $160 +$10 +6%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $161 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $15 +$2 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $337 +$5 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +14%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $328 +$8 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $321 +$7 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 01 $50 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $399 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18? May 20 $99 +$18 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 18 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 09 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 99¢ $162 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 92¢ $121 1h
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $7 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 98¢ $40 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 99¢ $130 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 8h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 88¢ $10 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $14 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $84 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 91¢ $18 30h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 93¢ $5 30h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $5 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 99¢ $49 30h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 98¢ $5 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 99¢ $22 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 30h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $5 30h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 93¢ $9 31h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $5 31h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 87¢ $4 31h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $5 31h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $10 31h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $5 31h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $5 31h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $5 31h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $5 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,667.66 · official $1,670.34 (match) · 2533 history records