Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:59:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x09e7…1fff
weather · 878 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$360 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$303 · open −$87
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$128
Realized−$303
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses392 / 433
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions73
Markets (closed)825 / 878
History coverage16d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day169.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 73 History 825 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$395
14 days−$179
30 days−$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $320 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will 8+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 26¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? No 42¢ 45¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+62%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+153%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+50%)
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 27¢ 48¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+80%)
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 12¢ 13¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 81¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-15%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Yes 18¢ 8¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-53%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $6 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $160B by December 31? Yes 78¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+21%)
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by June 30? No 86¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31? No 13¢ 50¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+285%)
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $10B by December 31? Yes 43¢ 36¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No 12¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? No 15¢ 11¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? No 83¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 13 $118 +$3 +2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Jun 13 $17 −$16 -94%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.6B? Jun 13 $6 −$4 -71%
SlingshotDAO FDV above $8M one day after launch? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -79%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? Jun 13 $20 +$34 +170%
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? Jun 13 $45 −$14 -30%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $3 +$6 +179%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? Jun 13 $6 +$3 +43%
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? Jun 13 $7 +$2 +31%
Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Arcium launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 13 $12 +$15 +123%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 13 $11 $0 -1%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? Jun 13 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $149 +$6 +4%
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 13 $11 $0 -3%
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4900+ by June 30? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Jun 13 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Jun 13 $11 +$3 +27%
Will Trump praise Susan Dell by June 30? Jun 13 $21 +$2 +10%
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next PMQ? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$3 -24%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Jun 13 $27 +$17 +64%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $12 +$2 +14%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 13 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? Jun 13 $86 +$4 +5%
Will Curvance launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$5 -27%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con Jun 13 $7 +$11 +164%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$17 +825%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 13 $39 $0 +1%
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? Jun 13 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 13 $81 −$6 -8%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Jun 13 $51 +$32 +63%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $21 +$3 +16%
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 22% −$187
sports 20% −$196
weather 19% −$180
other 15% −$20
politics 14% −$241
world 4% +$398
tech 3% −$13
finance 3% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL No 61¢ $5 1h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL Yes 64¢ $6 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $7 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $10B by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $6 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $2 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.6B? SELL No 28¢ $2 1h
Arc FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 1h
SlingshotDAO FDV above $8M one day after launch? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $4 1h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 1h
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $7 1h
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 34¢ $6 1h
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 1h
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $8 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $8 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 325 -8.1% -16.9% 51% 44% -18.3%
≤30d 825 -1.1% -10.6% 48% 40% -13.1%
≤90d 825 -1.1% -10.6% 48% 40% -13.1%
all 825 -1.1% -10.6% 48% 40% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover169.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 40% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 33% -21.4%
15% -26.9% 22% -29.0%
20% -34.1% 16% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.96 · official $125.28 · 3500 history records