Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:19:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x09e6…24a1 other 356 markets active 0h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12,103 (+7%) realized +$11,502 · open +$601
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate50%153W / 153L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$480per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$7,879now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$120
7 days+$421
14 days+$1,810
30 days+$2,188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 61% +$8,296
other 32% +$4,520
world 4% +$246
politics 2% −$330
sports 1% +$198
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +8.5% -1.8% 79% 63% -4.1%
≤30d 46 +21.5% +9.9% 72% 48% -0.9%
≤90d 134 -1.1% -10.5% 55% 34% -3.6%
all 306 +4.4% -5.5% 50% 31% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 31% -2.5%
10% -14.6% 25% -11.9%
15% -22.8% 20% -20.4%
20% -30.4% 15% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$80 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$7,879
Realized+$11,502
Unrealized+$601
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses153 / 153
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions50
Markets (closed)306 / 356
History coverage492d
Avg bet$480
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 57¢ 71¢ $1,460 $1,812 +$352 (+24%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 58¢ 53¢ $1,123 $1,028 −$95 (-8%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? Yes 43¢ 46¢ $671 $716 +$44 (+7%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $563 $533 −$30 (-5%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No 88¢ 94¢ $493 $524 +$31 (+6%)
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? No 90¢ 82¢ $500 $457 −$43 (-9%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 68¢ $330 $394 +$64 (+19%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? No 48¢ 90¢ $191 $358 +$167 (+87%)
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 38¢ 56¢ $225 $330 +$105 (+47%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? No 56¢ 50¢ $329 $292 −$37 (-11%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $333 $245 −$88 (-26%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 35¢ 64¢ $109 $199 +$90 (+83%)
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? No 79¢ 76¢ $154 $150 −$4 (-3%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 86¢ $118 $146 +$28 (+23%)
Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 90¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+9%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 76¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 74¢ 80¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 53¢ 55¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +42%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,343 +$86 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$18 -91%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$15 -76%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 15 $274 +$51 +18%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +52%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5,153 +$263 +5%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$4 +39%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$7 +35%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 09 $54 −$28 -51%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 09 $157 −$83 -53%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $557 −$369 -66%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,250 +$450 +36%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $163 +$60 +37%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $324 +$15 +5%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $366 +$8 +2%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $455 +$6 +1%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $981 +$101 +10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $884 +$361 +41%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1,318 +$929 +70%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $71 −$28 -39%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? May 31 $560 +$60 +11%
Will any other model have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? May 31 $180 −$180 -100%
Claude 4.8 released by June 15? May 28 $87 +$5 +6%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $2,640 +$815 +31%
Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? May 27 $176 +$75 +43%
Enhanced Games Deadlift H2H: Hafthor Bjornsson vs. Mitchell Hooper May 25 $142 +$9 +6%
Enhanced Games: Men’s 50m Butterfly World Record Broken? May 25 $154 +$30 +20%
Enhanced Games: Mitchell Hooper Heaviest Deadlift Over 500 Kg? May 25 $169 +$37 +22%
Enhanced Games: Hafthor Bjornsson Heaviest Deadlift Over 510 Kg? May 24 $907 −$826 -91%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $227 +$265 +117%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 20? May 19 $452 +$8 +2%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 19 $4,015 +$107 +3%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 17 $124 −$9 -7%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 16 $209 −$4 -2%
Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $312 −$311 -100%
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? May 15 $3,475 +$867 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,076 22m
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 1h
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $42 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 37¢ $66 2h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 43¢ $687 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $646 20h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $646 20h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $17 20h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $33 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 20h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY No 58¢ $197 20h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY No 53¢ $137 21h
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 42h
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 42h
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $35 42h
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 3d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 4d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $49 4d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $20 4d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $112 4d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $66 4d
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $254 4d
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $237 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $195 5d
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $152 5d
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $776 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,878.86 · official $7,878.87 (match) · 3385 history records