Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
09 0x09e4…93aa politics 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 514d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,582 (+2%) realized +$2,302 · open +$280
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate72%74W / 29L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$1,104per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$12,597now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$499
7 days+$499
14 days+$499
30 days+$381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% +$407
other 30% +$1,445
world 24% −$139
culture 6% +$61
economics 4% +$34
crypto 1% +$417
tech 1% +$86
weather 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +12.0% +1.3% 100% 100% +1.3%
≤30d 4 -1.4% -10.8% 75% 25% -5.4%
≤90d 15 -1.3% -10.7% 67% 7% -8.0%
all 103 -3.7% -12.9% 72% 24% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 24% -7.7%
10% -21.2% 9% -16.5%
15% -28.8% 6% -24.6%
20% -35.8% 3% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,330) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$152 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

514d coverage
Net worth$12,597
Realized+$2,302
Unrealized+$280
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses74 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)103 / 112
History coverage514d
Avg bet$1,104
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $3,132 $3,243 +$111 (+4%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 95¢ 99¢ $2,387 $2,479 +$92 (+4%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 91¢ 94¢ $1,631 $1,683 +$53 (+3%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $1,064 $1,078 +$14 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 80¢ 76¢ $1,100 $1,052 −$48 (-4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $938 $987 +$49 (+5%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $888 $889 +$1 (+0%)
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $890 $888 −$2 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $289 $299 +$10 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 17 $4,168 +$499 +12%
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $758 −$149 -20%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 01 $933 +$14 +2%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,581 +$16 +1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 17 $1,851 −$576 -31%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $3,586 +$64 +2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 04 $2,449 +$240 +10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 04 $1,218 +$78 +6%
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 22 $1,533 +$127 +8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $1,180 −$252 -21%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 04 $810 −$78 -10%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $3,647 +$242 +7%
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? Apr 02 $2,377 +$184 +8%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? Mar 29 $1,116 +$102 +9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30? Mar 23 $1,142 −$26 -2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Mar 17 $2,062 +$9 +0%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 11 $1,101 +$37 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 11 $2,165 +$41 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 07 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $1,627 +$75 +5%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Feb 28 $1,000 −$49 -5%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $1,340 −$939 -70%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 28 $7,069 +$168 +2%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 22 $2,241 +$289 +13%
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Feb 19 $500 −$500 -100%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 05 $791 +$29 +4%
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? Feb 04 $1,040 +$40 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 01 $2,205 +$458 +21%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary ele Jan 27 $215 −$143 -66%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Jan 10 $768 −$275 -36%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 10 $1,347 +$36 +3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 07 $2,308 +$21 +1%
Starmer out in 2025? Jan 01 $2,228 +$121 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 01 $1,962 +$133 +7%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Jan 01 $1,538 +$123 +8%
Rachel Reeves out as Chancellor of the Exchequer by December 31? Jan 01 $1,619 +$321 +20%
Will Philip Funderburg win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary e Dec 30 $131 +$7 +6%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Dec 18 $800 +$67 +8%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 12 $501 +$26 +5%
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 05 $371 −$371 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 30 $3,473 +$69 +2%
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 30 $989 +$60 +6%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 24 $3,712 −$31 -1%
Will Estonia win Miss Universe 2025? Nov 21 $400 +$29 +7%
Will 风无向 Web3Feng win the Synthetix trading competition? Nov 17 $572 +$276 +48%
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 09 $200 −$200 -100%
US forces in Venezuela by November 30? Nov 07 $600 −$9 -2%
US forces in Venezuela by December 31? Nov 07 $794 +$11 +1%
Maduro out in 2025? Nov 07 $1,017 +$50 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $659 1h
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $16 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $579 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $561 1h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $2,678 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $704 7d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 98¢ $1,270 7d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $378 8d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $1,106 8d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $507 8d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 97¢ $1,653 11d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $782 11d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $844 11d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 92¢ $243 13d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 92¢ $115 13d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 92¢ $6 13d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 92¢ $9 13d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 92¢ $549 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $974 13d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $336 14d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $880 14d
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $2 15d
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $57 15d
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $437 15d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $341 15d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 15d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 15d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 15d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 15d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,596.91 · official $12,596.91 (match) · 836 history records