Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x09e1…373e crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$57 (+0%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%52W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$921per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$55
tech 7% +$3
other 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 4 -2.2% -11.5% 25% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 5 -1.7% -11.1% 40% 0% -11.0%
all 55 -0.0% -9.6% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,151) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×15.79 per $1 lost it wins $15.79
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses52 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage202d
Avg bet$921
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch Jun 17 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title May 23 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $1,143 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 14? Mar 15 $1,142 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $1,141 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $1,139 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $1,138 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $1,137 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on March 8? Mar 09 $1,136 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $1,134 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 4? Mar 05 $1,131 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 2? Mar 03 $1,130 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $1,129 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $1,128 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 13? Jan 14 $1,169 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 12? Jan 13 $1,168 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 5-11? Jan 12 $1,166 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on January 10? Jan 11 $1,163 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on January 8? Jan 09 $1,163 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 December 29-January 4? Jan 05 $1,162 +$1 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of December 29 above $260? Jan 03 $1,161 +$1 +0%
Will Microsoft reach $630 in December? Jan 01 $1,160 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of December? Jan 01 $1,159 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on December 30? Dec 31 $1,158 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 December 22-28? Dec 29 $1,156 +$1 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of December 22 above $430? Dec 27 $1,155 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 25? Dec 26 $1,153 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.50 on December 23? Dec 24 $49 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.30 and $2.40 on December 23? Dec 24 $1,103 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 15-21? Dec 22 $1,151 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on December 20? Dec 21 $1,149 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on December 19? Dec 20 $1,148 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on December 16? Dec 18 $1,147 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 December 8-14? Dec 15 $268 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 8-14? Dec 15 $302 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on December 14 Dec 15 $576 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on December 13 Dec 14 $1,145 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on December 12? Dec 13 $1,143 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on December 11? Dec 12 $1,142 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on December Dec 11 $1,141 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on December 9? Dec 10 $499 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on December 9 Dec 10 $641 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 1-7? Dec 08 $1,139 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 5? Dec 06 $1,138 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,400 on December 3? Dec 04 $1,129 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 2? Dec 03 $1,135 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch SELL No 86¢ $42 1h
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch BUY No 89¢ $44 2h
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by July 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 4d
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by July 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 4d
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by July 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 4d
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by July 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 4d
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title SELL Yes 43¢ $31 24d
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title BUY Yes 44¢ $32 24d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? BUY No 100¢ $33 52d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $34 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,143 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,142 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,141 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $1,139 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,138 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $1,137 100d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on March 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,136 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 6? BUY No 100¢ $1,134 103d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $1,131 105d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 2? BUY No 100¢ $1,130 106d
Will Solana reach $110 February 23-March 1? BUY No 100¢ $1,129 107d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $1,128 108d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $30 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,169 155d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 12? BUY No 100¢ $1,168 155d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $1,166 156d
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on January 10? BUY No 100¢ $1,163 158d
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on January 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,163 162d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 December 29-January 4? BUY No 100¢ $1,162 165d
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of December 29 above $260? BUY No 100¢ $1,161 166d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records