Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:38:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09da…56ff sports 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,640 (-12%) realized −$2,378 · open −$262
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%51W / 99L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$321est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$36
14 days−$80
30 days−$6,607
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +19.1% +7.7% 40% 40% -15.2%
≤30d 46 -43.1% -48.5% 22% 20% -65.6%
≤90d 116 -16.8% -24.7% 34% 34% -22.5%
all 150 -17.1% -25.0% 34% 33% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 33% -22.5%
10% -32.2% 33% -29.9%
15% -38.7% 33% -36.7%
20% -44.7% 32% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -28% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$115 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$2,378
Unrealized−$262
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses51 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$321
Open positions2
Markets (closed)150 / 152
History coverage117d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-2.5) Atlanta Dream 53¢ 20¢ $332 $122 −$210 (-63%)
ITF Maanshan: Evialina Laskevich vs I Wen Wan Evialina Laskevich 47¢ 21¢ $94 $42 −$52 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Kanon Sawashiro Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 25 $84 +$209 +250%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 25 $98 +$143 +146%
ITF Claremont: Liam Krall vs Lorenzo Claverie Jun 25 $92 −$92 -100%
ITF Bergamo: Leonardo Borrelli vs Giuseppe La Vela Jun 24 $307 −$197 -64%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $24 −$24 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 05 $212 −$209 -99%
ITF Lakewood: Justin Roberts vs Nathan Cox Jun 03 $100 −$98 -98%
ITF Sumter: Sofia Shapatava vs Kylie Collins Jun 03 $102 −$36 -36%
Valencia vs. Bilbao Basket Jun 03 $54 +$85 +158%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $79 −$78 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $176 +$218 +124%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 May 28 $300 +$279 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 28 $79 +$271 +344%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Camila Osorio May 28 $64 −$63 -98%
Chisinau: Daniil Glinka vs Liam Broady May 28 $182 −$179 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Altmaier vs Hijikata May 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Lotte Giants May 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Dominik Palan vs Kokoro Isomura May 27 $40 −$32 -81%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Talia Gibson May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Taro Daniel May 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Paris: Katie Volynets vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $36 −$36 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 May 27 $62 −$62 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Michael Zheng vs Stefano Travaglia May 27 $51 −$51 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 May 27 $107 −$107 -100%
Quinn vs. Comesana: Match O/U 38.5 May 27 $106 −$106 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 27 $71 −$71 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Anhelina Kalinina vs Petra Marcinko May 27 $73 −$73 -100%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Learner Tien May 27 $173 +$4 +2%
Vicenza: Stefano Travaglia vs Alejandro Moro Canas May 27 $203 −$203 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) May 27 $354 −$354 -100%
Jovic vs. Eala: Match O/U 21.5 May 27 $406 −$406 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 27 $436 −$436 -100%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $495 −$495 -100%
Little Rock: Johannus Monday vs Braden Shick May 27 $517 −$517 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 27 $911 −$911 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Emilio Nava vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 27 $1,061 −$1,061 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 27 $1,539 −$1,539 -100%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos May 26 $102 −$3 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo May 26 $507 +$386 +76%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears May 26 $147 +$98 +67%
Centurion: Devin Badenhorst vs Akira Santillan May 26 $204 +$368 +180%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $1,157 +$1,169 +101%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz May 25 $659 +$501 +76%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Patrick Kypson May 25 $677 −$35 -5%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) May 24 $404 +$272 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Maanshan: Evialina Laskevich vs I Wen Wan BUY Evialina Laskevich 47¢ $95 37m
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-2.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 53¢ $337 1h
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Kanon Sawashiro BUY Kanon Sawashiro 23¢ $102 1h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever SELL Phoenix Mercury 100¢ $293 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 40¢ $98 2h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $84 2h
ITF Claremont: Liam Krall vs Lorenzo Claverie BUY Liam Krall 33¢ $92 3h
ITF Bergamo: Leonardo Borrelli vs Giuseppe La Vela BUY Giuseppe La Vela 38¢ $129 5h
ITF Bergamo: Leonardo Borrelli vs Giuseppe La Vela SELL Leonardo Borrelli 63¢ $98 5h
ITF Bergamo: Leonardo Borrelli vs Giuseppe La Vela BUY Leonardo Borrelli 66¢ $106 5h
ITF Bergamo: Leonardo Borrelli vs Giuseppe La Vela BUY Giuseppe La Vela 36¢ $71 5h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova $21 7d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 39¢ $24 12d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 57¢ $212 19d
ITF Lakewood: Justin Roberts vs Nathan Cox BUY Nathan Cox 33¢ $100 21d
ITF Sumter: Sofia Shapatava vs Kylie Collins SELL Sofia Shapatava 29¢ $65 21d
ITF Sumter: Sofia Shapatava vs Kylie Collins BUY Sofia Shapatava 44¢ $102 21d
Valencia vs. Bilbao Basket SELL Valencia 100¢ $139 21d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 44¢ $79 21d
Valencia vs. Bilbao Basket BUY Valencia 38¢ $54 21d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 44¢ $176 25d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $578 27d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $300 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva SELL Martin Landaluce 100¢ $350 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva BUY Martin Landaluce 22¢ $79 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Camila Osorio BUY Yulia Putintseva 43¢ $64 27d
Chisinau: Daniil Glinka vs Liam Broady BUY Daniil Glinka 41¢ $182 27d
Little Rock: Johannus Monday vs Braden Shick BUY Braden Shick 44¢ $517 29d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos SELL NC Dinos 44¢ $98 29d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $436 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.29 · official $203.39 · 334 history records