Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:55:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x09d6…0fda
world · 441 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$20,881 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20,897 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$1,329
Realized−$20,897
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses293 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions31
Markets (closed)410 / 441
History coverage229d
Avg bet$950
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 31 History 410 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$352
7 days+$356
14 days+$373
30 days+$453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+3%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 99¢ 97¢ $49 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 97¢ 97¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 86¢ 84¢ $50 $48 −$1 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 96¢ 96¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 94¢ 95¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 94¢ 94¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 94¢ 94¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 93¢ 93¢ $47 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 92¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? No 93¢ 92¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? No 93¢ 92¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 92¢ 92¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? No 92¢ 92¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 90¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? No 90¢ 90¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? No 90¢ 90¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 90¢ 90¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $48 +$1 +3%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 13 $136 +$3 +2%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 13 $45 +$3 +6%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 13 $883 −$73 -8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $94 $0 +0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 13 $47 +$1 +3%
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $89 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $8,752 +$445 +5%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $47 +$2 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $551 −$40 -7%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $49 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $81 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $249 +$3 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $47 +$3 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 07 $36 +$4 +11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $184 +$16 +9%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 31 $49 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? May 27 $87 +$13 +15%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $32 +$18 +56%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy bo May 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30? May 23 $16 $0 +3%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? May 17 $184 +$24 +13%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 17 $45 −$2 -4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 17 $211 +$6 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 17 $49 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 17 $38 −$3 -8%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 17 $48 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $41 +$3 +7%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 17 $34 −$1 -4%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 17 $34 −$2 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 17 $44 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 17 $47 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $44 +$6 +15%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 14 $15 +$19 +126%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 12 $48 +$2 +5%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 06 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 06 $48 +$2 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 06 $36 +$14 +39%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? May 06 $49 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 06 $47 +$6 +12%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 06 $194 +$6 +3%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 06 $193 +$7 +4%
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? May 06 $193 +$7 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% −$37,701
world 27% +$11,793
politics 17% −$1,731
economics 5% +$2,656
tech 2% +$261
crypto 1% +$3,698
finance 0% +$215
weather 0% +$40
sports 0% −$60
culture 0% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 92¢ $46 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 90¢ $45 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 93¢ $47 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $46 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $45 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $48 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $47 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 90¢ $45 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 82¢ $171 1h
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $139 1h
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $47 1h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $4 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $13 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $44 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $94 1h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 1h
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $89 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $197 1h
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $53 1h
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $46 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $47 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +2.4% -7.4% 81% 10% -6.7%
≤30d 41 +6.7% -3.5% 73% 17% -6.3%
≤90d 106 +7.0% -3.2% 75% 24% -4.4%
all 410 +20.7% +9.2% 71% 24% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.2% 24% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -1.3% 12% -24.6%
15% -10.8% 9% -31.9%
20% -19.5% 7% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,328.87 · official $1,328.87 (match) · 3500 history records