Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:49:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x09d5…890d
world · 75 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses31 / 40
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)71 / 75
History coverage519d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 4 History 71 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 86¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 77¢ 85¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 13¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $94 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $131 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $162 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $2 −$1 -34%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $1 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $42 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $80 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $84 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $39 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $46 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $41 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $78 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $74 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $9 $0 +3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $76 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $1 $0 -18%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $210 +$6 +3%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $9 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $35 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $31 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $71 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 15 $16 $0 -1%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $33 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $33 $0 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $133 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $2 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 40% +$1
other 22% −$3
sports 21% −$11
politics 14% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
weather 0% +$8
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $27 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 81¢ $14 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $25 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $19 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $33 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $33 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $37 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $40 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $40 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $37 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $37 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $17 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $28 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $6 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $31 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 56¢ $20 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 56¢ $17 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -1.6% -11.0% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 65 -0.6% -10.0% 42% 2% -9.3%
all 71 +14.7% +3.8% 44% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 6% -9.7%
10% -6.1% 3% -18.3%
15% -15.2% 1% -26.2%
20% -23.5% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.87 · official $27.86 (match) · 339 history records