Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x09d3…92b4 crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$718 (+27%) realized +$618 · open +$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,031
7 days+$1,031
14 days+$1,031
30 days+$1,031
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$852
crypto 28% +$195
economics 11% −$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +26.8% +14.8% 50% 50% +34.0%
≤30d 8 +26.8% +14.8% 50% 50% +34.0%
≤90d 8 +26.8% +14.8% 50% 50% +34.0%
all 13 -15.2% -23.3% 31% 31% +20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 31% +20.3%
10% -30.6% 31% +8.8%
15% -37.3% 31% -1.7%
20% -43.5% 23% -11.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +33% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$362 vs −$72 · ×5.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized+$618
Unrealized+$100
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage617d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 24¢ 52¢ $100 $217 +$117 (+117%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$235 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$261 +248%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,010 +$461 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $508 +$491 +97%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 29 $75 −$75 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Jan 28 $44 −$6 -13%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? Jan 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $106 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 58m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $105 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $508 11h
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 454d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 503d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 504d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 504d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 2¢ $38 504d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $44 504d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 504d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $60 504d
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 616d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.93 · official $291.68 · 30 history records