Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:34:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
09 0x09ce…de6a other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+8%) realized +$10 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$15
politics 15% +$10
tech 6% −$5
sports 4% +$25
crypto 4% −$3
world 4% −$4
finance 2% $0
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 +67.1% +51.2% 42% 42% +12.5%
≤90d 36 +9.3% -1.1% 33% 33% -12.9%
all 37 +15.6% +4.6% 35% 35% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.6% 35% -0.8%
10% -5.4% 32% -10.3%
15% -14.5% 27% -19.0%
20% -22.9% 27% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)37 / 44
History coverage99d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 22¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 32¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) score the most goals in 2025-26 UEFA Ch May 30 $2 +$2 +104%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2 +$23 +1164%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -23%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? May 30 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $5 +$1 +12%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $1 $0 +25%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $1 +$1 +62%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 48 million views on day 2 May 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get 48 million or more views on day 2? May 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 44 and 46 million views on day 2 May 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 42 million views on day 2 May 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? May 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $5 +$1 +23%
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 7? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-04-26? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SpaceX list on the NYSE? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 01 $1 +$6 +600%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 01 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 01 $8 +$6 +73%
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $4 +$4 +108%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on March 21? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $5 +$12 +244%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) score the most goals in 2025-26 UEFA Ch SELL Yes 100¢ $4 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 15d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $1 15d
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? SELL No 14¢ $1 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 15d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 15d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes $1 15d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes $2 15d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 48 million views on day 2 BUY Yes $1 27d
Will MrBeast's next video get 48 million or more views on day 2? BUY Yes $1 27d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 44 and 46 million views on day 2 BUY Yes $1 27d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 48 million views on day 2 BUY Yes $1 27d
Will MrBeast's next video get 48 million or more views on day 2? BUY Yes $1 27d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 48 million views on day 2 BUY Yes $1 27d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 42 million views on day 2 BUY Yes $1 27d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 44 and 46 million views on day 2 BUY Yes $1 27d
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? BUY Yes $1 32d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 32d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o BUY Yes $1 32d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $1 32d
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) score the most goals in 2025-26 UEFA Ch BUY Yes 49¢ $2 51d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 51d
Will Paris FC win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 51d
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 60d
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.05 · official $8.05 (match) · 75 history records