Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:13:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
09 0x09cc…f314 crypto 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$96 (-37%) realized −$79 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$99
other 40% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-53.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -48.7% -53.6% 50% 0% -69.1%
≤30d 2 -48.7% -53.6% 50% 0% -69.1%
≤90d 2 -48.7% -53.6% 50% 0% -69.1%
all 2 -48.7% -53.6% 50% 0% -69.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.6% 0% -69.1%
10% -58.0% 0% -72.0%
15% -62.1% 0% -74.7%
20% -65.8% 0% -77.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$100 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$79
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 21¢ 17¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 2h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.35 · official $134.35 (match) · 4 history records