Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:40:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09ca…6b64 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$78 (-2%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate77%37W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$49
14 days−$38
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$11
other 15% −$41
sports 6% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -12.9% -21.2% 75% 25% -29.4%
≤30d 27 -13.8% -22.0% 70% 15% -15.1%
≤90d 48 -11.7% -20.1% 77% 8% -11.9%
all 48 -11.7% -20.1% 77% 8% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 8% -11.9%
10% -27.8% 6% -20.3%
15% -34.7% 4% -28.0%
20% -41.1% 2% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$19 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses37 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage63d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $74 −$73 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$24 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $42 +$5 +12%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $39 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $41 −$2 -4%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $52 −$52 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $41 +$52 +129%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $43 −$43 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $88 −$4 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $66 +$21 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on June 8? Jun 05 $66 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 7? Jun 04 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 7? Jun 03 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on June 2? May 30 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 31? May 27 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 28? May 26 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 27? May 25 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 24? May 21 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 21? May 18 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88,000 on May 20? May 18 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 19? May 17 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 17? May 15 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 15? May 14 $93 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 11? May 10 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? May 07 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? May 05 $97 −$5 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $95 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? May 03 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30? May 01 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 30? Apr 29 $92 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $91 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 27? Apr 26 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 25? Apr 25 $88 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $87 +$2 +2%
LoL: LUA Gaming vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Regular Season Apr 23 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Regular Season Apr 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $74 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $50 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 92¢ $38 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $49 6d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $47 7d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $42 8d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $41 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 83¢ $28 12d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $39 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $39 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $39 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $39 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $39 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $39 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $39 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 54¢ $39 17d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $52 18d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $41 18d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $43 18d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 43¢ $41 18d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 58¢ $84 18d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 59¢ $88 18d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 18d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 75¢ $66 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $66 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $66 21d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $10 21d
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.60 · official $49.60 (match) · 95 history records