Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:47:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x09c7…8011
world · 67 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$8 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses26 / 39
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage521d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 2 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$4
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 33¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $9 $0 -4%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $4 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $105 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $49 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $75 −$7 -9%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $67 +$2 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $49 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $15 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $37 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $51 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $23 +$3 +14%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $2 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 18 $25 +$2 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 18 $12 +$2 +12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $72 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $2 $0 +6%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $69 −$1 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $113 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 10 $76 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $39 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 09 $114 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $75 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $157 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Mar 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 29 $37 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 28 $9 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 36% +$2
politics 28% +$1
sports 19% −$1
other 16% −$7
economics 1% $0
weather 0% −$3
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $17 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $1 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $16 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 23¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $9 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $36 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $1 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $34 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $34 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $2 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 8d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $14 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $14 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.6% -8.0% 40% 20% -9.5%
≤30d 22 +2.1% -7.6% 55% 14% -9.2%
≤90d 54 +0.9% -8.7% 37% 6% -9.5%
all 65 -2.0% -11.3% 40% 8% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 8% -9.9%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.72 · official $0.00 (match) · 255 history records