Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:46:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09c6…291e other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26,217 (-24%) realized −$25,907 · open −$310
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%28W / 33L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,765per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$507est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$758now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$870
7 days−$3,096
14 days−$24,961
30 days−$27,490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$15,596
sports 35% −$12,633
crypto 1% +$785
world 1% −$356
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -11.2% -19.6% 50% 50% -16.4%
≤30d 61 -17.7% -25.5% 46% 44% -32.5%
≤90d 61 -17.7% -25.5% 46% 44% -32.5%
all 61 -17.7% -25.5% 46% 44% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 44% -32.5%
10% -32.7% 41% -38.9%
15% -39.2% 34% -44.8%
20% -45.1% 25% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$2,022) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -27% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$877 vs −$1,577 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$758
Realized−$25,907
Unrealized−$310
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses28 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$507
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage19d
Avg bet$1,765
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 57¢ 40¢ $1,068 $758 −$310 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $860 −$860 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,581 +$1,238 +78%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,098 +$413 +38%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $996 −$758 -76%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,264 +$690 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,918 −$514 -27%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,096 −$1,096 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1,119 +$221 +20%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $2,742 −$1,283 -47%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $934 +$160 +17%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $1,421 +$919 +65%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4,937 +$2,468 +50%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $676 −$375 -55%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2,539 −$1,870 -74%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2,103 −$1,543 -73%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $817 −$335 -41%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $908 −$594 -65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $696 +$333 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,417 +$785 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,016 −$1,002 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $527 +$384 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,569 +$1,015 +65%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,470 −$1,470 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,578 +$938 +60%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $848 +$617 +73%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,979 +$442 +22%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,516 −$1,104 -73%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 18 $915 −$914 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,035 +$1,372 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,057 −$1,057 -100%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 17 $638 +$455 +71%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,318 +$320 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,572 +$751 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $862 +$1,700 +197%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,110 −$1,110 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4,999 −$4,999 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 16 $7,016 −$7,016 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,389 −$1,204 -87%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $848 −$468 -55%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $699 −$356 -51%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,160 +$528 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,960 −$1,141 -58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,031 −$1,493 -49%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,022 +$1,109 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,074 −$4,005 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7,028 +$3,994 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4,983 −$4,983 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,081 −$1,770 -57%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1,999 −$1,999 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,503 −$1,415 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $505 48m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $577 59m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,819 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,511 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $238 2h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $996 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $568 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 3h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $860 8h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 64¢ $1,264 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 51¢ $1,404 26h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,340 27h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 27h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,118 27h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 6¢ $125 28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,312 28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $606 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,098 31h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,096 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $934 44h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 61¢ $1,376 44h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 60¢ $1,334 44h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 60¢ $1,366 46h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $1,421 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $4,928 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $302 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $674 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $758.18 · official $758.18 (match) · 164 history records