Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:27:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x09c2…8210
weather · 537 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$1,327 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$774 · open +$51
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$328
Realized+$774
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses295 / 238
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions4
Markets (closed)533 / 537
History coverage63d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day48.7
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 4 History 533 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$362
14 days−$519
30 days−$591
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $153 $165 +$12 (+8%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 54¢ 78¢ $51 $74 +$23 (+45%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? No 44¢ 74¢ $30 $50 +$20 (+67%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $44 $39 −$4 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -78%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 +$20 +129%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$7 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 12 $54 −$43 -79%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $401 −$262 -65%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$19 +94%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $46 +$21 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 +$8 +32%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $25 +$20 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 11 $54 +$26 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $139 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 −$15 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $64 +$27 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$3 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $101 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $69 +$18 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $53 −$31 -58%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 9? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $29 −$29 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $15 +$11 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 09 $9 +$6 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $28 +$11 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $25 +$16 +63%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $104 +$64 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $30 −$24 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $51 +$15 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$2 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $18 −$7 -42%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $304 −$5 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $163 −$11 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 7? Jun 08 $105 −$105 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $174 +$33 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $25 −$9 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $61 +$55 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $48 −$27 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $22 +$36 +164%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 07 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 06 $36 +$19 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 06 $34 +$9 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 83% +$455
sports 7% +$75
world 6% +$417
crypto 3% +$85
other 2% −$208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 7m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 62¢ $31 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $21 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 45¢ $20 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 44¢ $30 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $10 20h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $15 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $25 25h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $14 47h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $40 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 47¢ $12 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 62¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? SELL Yes 89¢ $27 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? SELL Yes 90¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 66¢ $26 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $25 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 BUY Over 67¢ $54 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? SELL Yes 86¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? SELL Yes 89¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? SELL Yes 89¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -8.0% -16.7% 46% 46% -23.4%
≤30d 262 +3.5% -6.4% 53% 47% -14.0%
≤90d 533 +3.8% -6.1% 55% 47% -7.1%
all 533 +3.8% -6.1% 55% 47% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover48.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 47% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 38% -16.0%
15% -23.3% 29% -24.1%
20% -30.8% 19% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $328.02 · official $328.02 (match) · 3266 history records