Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:29:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09c1…2ac5 crypto 82 markets active 7d ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,438 (-42%) realized −$1,438 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%18W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$25
14 days−$59
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,544
sports 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -70.5% -73.4% 0% 0% -51.2%
≤30d 13 -53.3% -57.7% 23% 23% -47.0%
≤90d 39 -42.8% -48.2% 28% 28% -49.5%
all 82 -36.0% -42.1% 22% 21% -58.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.1% 21% -58.2%
10% -47.7% 18% -62.2%
15% -52.7% 15% -65.9%
20% -57.4% 12% -69.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$29 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,438
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses18 / 64
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage169d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $49 −$20 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $34 +$16 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 09 $49 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $27 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $40 −$13 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 02 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 02 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 02 $39 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 07 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 07 $21 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 07 $42 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 07 $42 −$40 -95%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - BC Gam May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2PM ET May 07 $84 +$36 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 07 $16 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 07 $22 +$11 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 07 $14 +$13 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 07 $20 +$22 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 07 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 07 $20 +$31 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 06 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 06 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6AM ET May 06 $31 −$29 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 06 $31 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 06 $44 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 05 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 05 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 05 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8AM ET May 05 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5? May 05 $106 −$54 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 05 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 07 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 7? Jan 07 $198 −$47 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 07 $80 −$14 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 6PM ET Jan 06 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jan 06 $140 −$100 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 06 $48 −$33 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jan 06 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 5PM ET Jan 06 $25 −$7 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jan 06 $10 −$6 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL BIG 67¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 44¢ $34 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $42 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $49 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $19 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $44 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $13 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $13 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $27 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $6 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $73 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $29 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $25 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $29 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $20 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records