Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09c1…0ddf sports 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,271 (-8%) realized −$3,261 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate28%42W / 108L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$731est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$506
14 days−$506
30 days−$3,412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$2,394
other 13% −$982
politics 8% −$96
tech 1% −$1
world 1% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -6.7% -15.6% 60% 2% -14.4%
≤30d 134 -8.7% -17.4% 31% 1% -18.7%
≤90d 150 -8.4% -17.2% 28% 1% -17.7%
all 150 -8.4% -17.2% 28% 1% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 1% -17.7%
10% -25.1% 1% -25.6%
15% -32.3% 1% -32.8%
20% -39.0% 0% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$35 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized−$3,261
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses42 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Est. fees paid−$731
Open positions2
Markets (closed)150 / 152
History coverage36d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Mentality Monster 29¢ 28¢ $145 $140 −$5 (-3%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Mentality Monster 29¢ 28¢ $145 $140 −$5 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $280 −$4 -1%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $355 +$5 +1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $190 +$5 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $124 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 17 $460 +$5 +1%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $260 −$34 -13%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 17 $190 +$5 +3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $190 +$4 +2%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $75 +$2 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $300 +$5 +2%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $335 +$5 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 16 $72 +$1 +2%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $170 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $230 +$5 +2%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $250 +$5 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $386 +$4 +1%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $255 +$1 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $488 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $215 +$1 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $187 −$45 -24%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $42 $0 -1%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $320 +$72 +23%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 14 $54 +$3 +5%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $245 +$5 +2%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $59 −$12 -21%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $155 −$87 -56%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 14 $171 −$63 -37%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $170 −$38 -22%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 14 $226 +$4 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $295 −$2 -1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 14 $71 +$1 +2%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $215 +$5 +2%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $160 −$13 -8%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $310 −$4 -1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $290 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $98 −$1 -1%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $242 +$5 +2%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $235 +$5 +2%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $182 +$3 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $136 +$5 +3%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $255 −$14 -5%
Heilbronn: Mika Petkovic vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 02 $190 −$36 -19%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $685 −$460 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 29¢ $145 59m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 29¢ $145 59m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL No 56¢ $276 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $280 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode SELL Walczaki 60¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode SELL Walczaki 60¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 59¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL Team Nemesis 72¢ $360 4h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 71¢ $355 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 SELL Under 21¢ $102 9h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $100 9h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 39¢ $195 14h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 59¢ $4 15h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 59¢ $4 15h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 59¢ $6 15h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 59¢ $9 15h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 59¢ $3 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 59¢ $100 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 58¢ $124 16h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? SELL No 93¢ $465 20h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY No 92¢ $460 20h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 38¢ $190 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 46¢ $226 23h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta SELL Alliance Guardians 39¢ $3 26h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta SELL Alliance Guardians 39¢ $49 26h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta SELL Alliance Guardians 39¢ $49 26h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta SELL Alliance Guardians 39¢ $20 26h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta SELL Alliance Guardians 39¢ $48 26h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta SELL Alliance Guardians 39¢ $27 27h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Alliance Guardians 38¢ $190 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.00 · official $280.00 (match) · 664 history records