Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:31:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x09bf…b29b weather 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%128W / 4L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$7
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$15
politics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 76 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 122 -0.6% -10.1% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 132 -0.6% -10.0% 97% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×10.68 per $1 lost it wins $10.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses128 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage122d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $156 $156 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on June 25? Jun 26 $192 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 25? Jun 26 $154 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? Jun 25 $162 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? Jun 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? Jun 25 $154 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $319 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 23? Jun 24 $344 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $342 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $343 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $284 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 21 $289 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? Jun 19 $259 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $76 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 18 $238 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $339 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $238 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $262 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $337 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $336 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 10? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $286 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $292 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $299 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 8? Jun 09 $217 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $197 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 07 $195 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 5? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 5? Jun 06 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $102 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $156 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $192 16h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $154 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $162 31h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $154 32h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $32 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $319 43h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $344 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C or below on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $342 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $343 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $284 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $47 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $12 5d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $289 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $53 5d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $259 6d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $9 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $69 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $238 8d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $121 8d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $339 10d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $21 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $87 11d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $238 11d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $20 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $83 12d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $262 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $77 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $337 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.46 · official $156.46 (match) · 267 history records