Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:07:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09be…9c32 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$554 (+3%) realized +$518 · open +$36
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate68%17W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$711per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$2,913now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$230
14 days+$262
30 days+$564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$349
sports 2% +$247
politics 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -8.9% -17.6% 59% 6% -8.3%
≤30d 25 -0.5% -9.9% 68% 20% -6.8%
≤90d 25 -0.5% -9.9% 68% 20% -6.8%
all 25 -0.5% -9.9% 68% 20% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 20% -6.8%
10% -18.6% 12% -15.7%
15% -26.4% 8% -23.9%
20% -33.6% 4% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$112 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$2,913
Realized+$518
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses17 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)25 / 31
History coverage31d
Avg bet$711
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 95¢ 100¢ $1,420 $1,499 +$79 (+6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $485 $482 −$3 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 93¢ $273 $280 +$7 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $250 $255 +$5 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $250 $203 −$47 (-19%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No 95¢ 92¢ $200 $194 −$5 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,001 +$43 +4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,647 +$167 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,178 +$457 +14%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $3,884 +$324 +8%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,004 +$25 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $501 −$500 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $472 +$28 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $983 +$22 +2%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $350 −$347 -99%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $250 −$2 -1%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $250 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $250 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $250 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $250 $0 -0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $181 +$4 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $172 +$11 +6%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $153 +$17 +11%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $205 +$8 +4%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $22 +$8 +35%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $415 +$247 +60%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $456 −$44 -10%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 30 $322 +$15 +5%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $200 +$15 +7%
Will Lens win Coupe de France? May 23 $252 +$68 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $485 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $87 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $38 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $65 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $95 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $190 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 94¢ $160 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 94¢ $28 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 94¢ $282 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $476 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 96¢ $501 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 96¢ $501 27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $2,083 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $1,564 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $2,149 3d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 100¢ $2,159 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $1,029 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $1,004 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $501 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $983 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $472 5d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 100¢ $749 5d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 60¢ $152 5d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 100¢ $628 5d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 97¢ $5 5d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 98¢ $49 5d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 96¢ $14 5d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 96¢ $48 5d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 97¢ $48 5d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 97¢ $49 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,913.02 · official $2,913.27 (match) · 221 history records