Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x09bc…121d
crypto · 94 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$83 -33%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$84 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses28 / 54
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)82 / 94
History coverage116d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 12 History 82 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 75,200 on April 19, 3AM ET? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin above 74,200 on April 19, 9PM ET? Apr 20 $1 +$2 +128%
Bitcoin above 75,800 on April 18, 1PM ET? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Good looking" during Women's History Month event? Mar 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 12 $10 −$4 -42%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 12 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Feb 21 $0 $0 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 21 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 21 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 21 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 21 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 21 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 21 $4 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 67% −$28
tech 11% −$27
world 8% −$12
other 7% $0
sports 5% −$10
politics 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 49d
Bitcoin above 74,200 on April 19, 9PM ET? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 55d
Bitcoin above 75,200 on April 19, 3AM ET? BUY No 6¢ $0 56d
Bitcoin above 75,200 on April 19, 3AM ET? BUY No 6¢ $5 56d
Bitcoin above 75,800 on April 18, 1PM ET? BUY No 6¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 82d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 82d
Will Trump say "Good looking" during Women's History Month event? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 93d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 94d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 94d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 41 -92.0% -92.8% 5% 2% -95.1%
all 82 -43.4% -48.8% 34% 29% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.8% 29% -41.8%
10% -53.7% 15% -47.4%
15% -58.2% 15% -52.4%
20% -62.3% 15% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.88 · official $18.89 (match) · 233 history records