Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x09ba…0dd9 other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+0%) realized +$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate25%18W / 53L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 65% −$15
other 14% −$33
politics 14% −$10
sports 2% +$129
crypto 2% +$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 -6.8% -15.6% 13% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 57 +10.3% -0.2% 28% 19% -8.3%
all 71 +8.1% -2.2% 25% 15% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 15% -9.2%
10% -11.5% 15% -17.9%
15% -20.1% 14% -25.8%
20% -27.9% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×5.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses18 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage600d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 13 $55 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 26 $214 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 25 $22 $0 -0%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 20 $24 $0 -0%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $159 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $163 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $161 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $160 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers May 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $173 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $362 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $173 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $181 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $168 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $179 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $362 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 25 $178 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $171 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $174 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $182 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 24 $183 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 23 $178 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $170 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $182 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 22 $176 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $172 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $171 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $179 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 13 $188 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $9 +$6 +62%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 +$6 +72%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $6 +$6 +104%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $9 +$4 +48%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $6 +$9 +146%
Sabres vs. Senators Apr 06 $11 +$10 +89%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 3d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 3d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 19d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 19d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 20d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 20d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $49 21d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 22d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 22d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 22d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $27 22d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $22 23d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $22 23d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $55 24d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 25d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? SELL No 100¢ $23 26d
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? BUY No 100¢ $23 26d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 27d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 27d
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 28d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $30 28d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $30 28d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $159 29d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $159 29d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $163 29d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $163 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.78 · official $99.78 (match) · 291 history records