Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:56:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

09
0x09b9…2244
world · 66 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$19 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses19 / 44
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)63 / 66
History coverage481d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 3 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 62¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-37%)
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $79 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $33 −$1 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $54 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $80 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $24 +$3 +13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $60 −$8 -14%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $23 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $41 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $74 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $45 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $3 $0 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $44 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $3 $0 -5%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 11 $5 −$3 -52%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $211 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $8 +$1 +6%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $59 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $87 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $2 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $11 $0 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $5 $0 -1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $79 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2 $0 +8%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 10 $122 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $61 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $102 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 07 $3 $0 -3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 33% −$5
other 27% $0
politics 24% −$2
sports 13% −$12
finance 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $27 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $11 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $15 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $23 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $38 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $38 9h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $23 40h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $19 40h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $20 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $4 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $16 41h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 47h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 47h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $31 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $7 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $26 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $41 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $41 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 23 -0.6% -10.1% 26% 4% -10.1%
≤90d 62 -3.1% -12.4% 31% 2% -9.7%
all 63 -4.7% -13.8% 30% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 2% -10.1%
10% -22.0% 0% -18.7%
15% -29.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.49 · official $0.00 (match) · 296 history records