Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09b9…5178 other 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%21W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$5
politics 24% −$4
sports 23% −$5
economics 8% −$1
crypto 7% −$2
culture 6% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 211 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses21 / 190
Open positions1
Markets (closed)211 / 212
History coverage176d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 28 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $279 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 13 $186 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 12 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 12 $93 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 11 $74 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 11 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 09 $49 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 08 $168 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 07 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $258 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 06 $48 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 06 $226 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $105 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $163 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 03 $196 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 20 $154 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $43 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 20 $99 $0 -0%
Will Gonzaga win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 18 $194 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $84 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 15 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 13d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 93¢ $46 26d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 94¢ $47 26d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $40 39d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $40 39d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 98¢ $45 101d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $45 101d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 96¢ $46 102d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 95¢ $11 102d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 95¢ $34 102d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 95¢ $1 102d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? SELL No 96¢ $41 102d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 96¢ $41 103d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $47 103d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $47 103d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $45 103d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $46 103d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 95¢ $37 103d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $6 103d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $31 103d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $40 103d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $40 104d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $47 104d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $47 104d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $40 104d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $41 104d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $42 104d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $42 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.85 · official $39.85 (match) · 780 history records