Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:21:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

09 0x09b8…600a sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$13 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip

Net edge-68%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$122per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$406now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-68.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-64.6%	-68.0%	25%	25%	-5.4%
≤30d	4	-64.6%	-68.0%	25%	25%	-5.4%
≤90d	4	-64.6%	-68.0%	25%	25%	-5.4%
all	4	-64.6%	-68.0%	25%	25%	-5.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-68.0%	25%	-5.4%
10%	-71.0%	25%	-14.4%
15%	-73.8%	25%	-22.7%
20%	-76.4%	0%	-30.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -65% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$61 vs −$17 · ×3.53 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.18 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$406

Realized+$13

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage6d

Avg bet$122

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5	Over	78¢	78¢	$408	$406	−$3 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$146	+$61	+42%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	Jun 22	$11	−$11	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 22	$23	−$22	-99%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?	Jun 21	$19	−$19	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	78¢	$411	1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$1	5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$2	5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	70¢	$74	5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$10	6d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$10	6d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	6d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$19	6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	70¢	$72	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $405.80 · official $405.80 (match) · 11 history records