Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
09 0x09b6…f48d sports 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$803 (+0%) realized +$873 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate65%91W / 48L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$1,313per market
Trades / day43.4pace
Fees−$4,132est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,694now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$37
14 days+$465
30 days−$349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$1,727
world 4% +$165
other 2% +$310
crypto 1% −$348
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -12.8% -21.1% 56% 11% -9.8%
≤30d 40 -3.0% -12.2% 58% 10% -10.0%
≤90d 139 +3.5% -6.3% 65% 11% -8.6%
all 139 +3.5% -6.3% 65% 11% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 11% -8.6%
10% -15.3% 6% -17.3%
15% ← realistic here -23.5% 1% -25.3%
20% -31.0% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$2,328) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$84 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$2,694
Realized+$873
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses91 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$4,132
Open positions4
Markets (closed)139 / 145
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$1,313
Trades / day43.4
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 75¢ 74¢ $1,845 $1,808 −$37 (-2%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Francisco Cerundolo 65¢ 62¢ $845 $812 −$32 (-4%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $135 +$2 +2%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $75 −$1 -2%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $1,757 −$64 -4%
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 16 $905 +$95 +10%
Harriet Dart vs. Katie Boulter: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $611 +$12 +2%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 15 $780 −$94 -12%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 15 $309 −$56 -18%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $1,951 +$40 +2%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $4,243 +$28 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $515 +$1 +0%
ITF Hurghada: Aliesia Reva vs Ashleigh Harvey Jun 10 $75 +$2 +2%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 10 $344 +$18 +5%
Bratislava: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 09 $3,169 +$331 +10%
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Perricard (+1.5) Jun 08 $2,940 +$60 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $3,117 +$59 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $3,427 +$38 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 04 $335 −$7 -2%
ITF Luan: Sam Ryan Ziegann vs Tsung Hao Huang Jun 04 $3,084 +$147 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $866 −$10 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $55 +$45 +82%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 01 $2,589 −$20 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 31 $163 −$163 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $2,986 +$114 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $2,908 +$92 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $1,808 −$5 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $1,134 −$1 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 28 $2,680 +$320 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $2,805 −$62 -2%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Gea May 24 $1 $0 -10%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $2,685 +$15 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils May 22 $397 +$55 +14%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 22 $2,295 −$15 -1%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 22 $360 +$9 +2%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Alex de Minaur May 21 $2,367 −$15 -1%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud May 21 $515 −$7 -1%
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud May 20 $270 +$4 +2%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Learner Tien May 20 $1,761 +$36 +2%
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de Minaur May 19 $325 +$30 +9%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Elmer Moeller vs Timofey Skatov May 19 $1,015 −$15 -2%
Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud May 19 $3,173 −$1,368 -43%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Madison Keys vs Cristina Bucsa May 18 $1,051 +$363 +34%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3,029 +$133 +4%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $37 +$9 +25%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 15 $973 −$348 -36%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi May 14 $739 +$26 +4%
Zagreb: Yannick Alexandrescou vs Thanasi Kokkinakis May 13 $164 +$3 +2%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev May 13 $75 +$3 +4%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov May 12 $750 +$20 +3%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Daniil Medvedev May 12 $1,334 −$17 -1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Martin Landaluce May 12 $1,875 −$16 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 65¢ $854 1h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 73¢ $724 1h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 74¢ $29 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $52 2h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $151 23h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Alex de Minaur 78¢ $88 23h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Alex de Minaur 78¢ $10 24h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Alex de Minaur 78¢ $40 24h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Frances Tiafoe 69¢ $72 24h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $151 25h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Frances Tiafoe 69¢ $1 25h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $2,342 25h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Alex de Minaur 76¢ $135 29h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 70¢ $54 37h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 70¢ $21 38h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 51¢ $52 46h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz SELL Andrey Rublev 49¢ $1,689 46h
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Ugo Blanchet 50¢ $5 46h
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Ugo Blanchet 50¢ $299 47h
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Ugo Blanchet 50¢ $1 47h
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Ugo Blanchet 50¢ $1 47h
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Ugo Blanchet 50¢ $1 47h
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Ugo Blanchet 50¢ $3 47h
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet SELL Ugo Blanchet 50¢ $31 47h
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet BUY Ugo Blanchet 49¢ $120 47h
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet BUY Ugo Blanchet 49¢ $2 47h
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet BUY Ugo Blanchet 49¢ $5 47h
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet BUY Ugo Blanchet 49¢ $1 47h
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet BUY Ugo Blanchet 49¢ $480 47h
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet BUY Ugo Blanchet 49¢ $4 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,693.61 · official $2,693.61 (match) · 3500 history records