Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:51:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09b4…e56d other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$325 · open +$302
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate63%27W / 16L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$726per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$8,231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days−$755
14 days−$1,406
30 days−$1,986
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$1,510
sports 16% −$158
world 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +88.7% +70.7% 60% 15% -15.9%
≤30d 43 +30.5% +18.1% 63% 9% -15.1%
≤90d 43 +30.5% +18.1% 63% 9% -15.1%
all 43 +30.5% +18.1% 63% 9% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.1% 9% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here +6.8% 7% -23.2%
15% -3.6% 5% -30.6%
20% -13.0% 5% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$1,010) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late +80% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$170 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$8,231
Realized−$325
Unrealized+$302
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses27 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions16
Markets (closed)43 / 59
History coverage24d
Avg bet$726
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,132 $2,133 +$1 (+0%)
Will there be 20+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 97¢ $1,738 $1,835 +$96 (+6%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Yes 83¢ 90¢ $1,260 $1,372 +$112 (+9%)
Will 5+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 89¢ $594 $608 +$14 (+2%)
Will Canada be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $621 $603 −$18 (-3%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $351 $380 +$29 (+8%)
Will 6+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 94¢ $371 $377 +$6 (+2%)
Will 3+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 76¢ $200 $249 +$50 (+25%)
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 30¢ 28¢ $238 $226 −$12 (-5%)
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $195 $193 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $74 $74 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $64 $74 +$10 (+16%)
Will Qatar concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $52 +$1 (+2%)
Will Tunisia concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $25 $29 +$5 (+20%)
Will Ecuador finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+36%)
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 8¢ 19¢ $2 $6 +$3 (+140%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $185 −$5 -3%
Will Qatar finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 20 $557 +$22 +4%
Will Australia go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 19 $189 +$44 +23%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $83 +$1 +1%
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 19 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Qatar go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 19 $507 +$3 +1%
Will Canada finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 19 $951 +$7 +1%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $470 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro Jun 18 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $4,824 +$66 +1%
Will Canada be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 18 $26 +$1 +3%
Will there be 40+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $383 $0 +0%
Will there be 30+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will there be 25+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,586 +$45 +3%
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 16 $6 +$146 +2423%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 16 $1,061 −$1,061 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Japan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $89 −$11 -12%
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $141 −$23 -16%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $98 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $43 +$6 +15%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $999 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $1,694 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $407 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $4,496 +$3 +0%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 11 $365 +$38 +10%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $1,205 −$236 -20%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $138 −$135 -98%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $71 −$46 -65%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $321 −$321 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $4,879 +$70 +1%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Jacquemot (+1.5) Jun 09 $24 +$1 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $1,041 −$431 -41%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $541 −$421 -78%
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar May 28 $556 +$19 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 28 $1,064 +$36 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Solana Sierra May 28 $2,682 +$175 +6%
Set Handicap: Michelsen (-1.5) vs Basavareddy (+1.5) May 27 $5 $0 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen May 27 $1,010 +$43 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 28¢ $358 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 24¢ $28 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 24¢ $37 1h
World Cup: Scoreless Team? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,266 1h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $74 1h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2,132 1h
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 91¢ $383 2h
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2h
Will 5+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA BUY No 88¢ $274 2h
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY No 8¢ $17 2h
Will Ecuador finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 7¢ $16 2h
Will Qatar concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 18¢ $49 2h
Will Qatar concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will 6+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA BUY No 93¢ $371 2h
Will 5+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA BUY No 86¢ $322 2h
Will Tunisia concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 18¢ $25 2h
Will Qatar concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3h
Will 3+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA BUY No 61¢ $202 3h
Will Canada be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group St BUY Yes 78¢ $184 4h
Will Mexico win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $18 4h
Will Qatar finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL No 100¢ $97 14h
Will Qatar finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL No 100¢ $64 18h
Will Qatar finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL No 100¢ $75 18h
Will Canada be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group St SELL Yes 81¢ $770 19h
Will Qatar finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL No 100¢ $24 21h
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 30¢ $2 21h
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 30¢ $0 21h
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 30¢ $24 23h
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 30¢ $212 31h
Will Australia go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 96¢ $5 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,231.02 · official $8,225.72 (match) · 340 history records