Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:41:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09b4…494b other 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$873 (-12%) realized −$736 · open −$137
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 38L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$490
7 days−$711
14 days−$787
30 days−$787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$687
sports 16% −$29
politics 7% −$146
world 7% −$20
tech 4% −$30
finance 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -17.2% -25.1% 0% 0% -25.0%
≤30d 39 -14.1% -22.3% 3% 0% -19.5%
≤90d 39 -14.1% -22.3% 3% 0% -19.5%
all 39 -14.1% -22.3% 3% 0% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 0% -19.5%
10% -29.8% 0% -27.2%
15% -36.5% 0% -34.2%
20% -42.8% 0% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$25 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$736
Unrealized−$137
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions4
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage9d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Puerta be in Colombia's Starting 11? No 83¢ 45¢ $166 $90 −$76 (-46%)
Will Michael Olise win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $38 $11 −$27 (-71%)
Will Dr. Luizinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes 18¢ 2¢ $36 $4 −$32 (-88%)
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary by less than 5%? Yes 18¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 16 $38 −$3 -7%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI Jun 16 $250 −$5 -2%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $340 −$54 -16%
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.25B Jun 16 $311 −$58 -19%
Will Nicola Miccione win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Jun 16 $32 −$21 -65%
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $820 −$299 -36%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on Jun 15 $7 −$1 -10%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $208 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -54%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 15 $48 −$16 -34%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 15 $279 −$25 -9%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Jun 14 $137 −$5 -4%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 14 $22 −$3 -14%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $261 −$3 -1%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $85 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? Jun 13 $66 −$16 -24%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $250 −$24 -10%
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $29 −$7 -26%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $42 −$9 -21%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 11 $134 −$50 -37%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 11 $42 −$12 -30%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 11 $87 −$11 -13%
Will voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zam Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $560 −$70 -12%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in June? Jun 10 $31 −$14 -46%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 10 $54 −$3 -5%
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? Jun 09 $148 $0 +0%
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? Jun 09 $96 −$9 -9%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 08 $120 −$9 -8%
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.125 Jun 08 $222 −$1 -1%
Tuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 08 $123 −$15 -12%
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $590 $0 +0%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.1B? Jun 07 $258 −$12 -5%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? Jun 07 $156 −$30 -19%
Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 07 $660 $0 +0%
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? Jun 07 $84 $0 +0%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 07 $700 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 62¢ $12 29m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 75¢ $22 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 75¢ $38 1h
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI SELL Yes 50¢ $245 1h
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI BUY Yes 50¢ $250 1h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $154 2h
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.25B SELL No 61¢ $84 2h
Will Nicola Miccione win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 2h
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 45¢ $320 12h
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on SELL No 32¢ $6 12h
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY No 35¢ $7 13h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $208 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 2¢ $1 17h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $208 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 5¢ $2 18h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL Yes 11¢ $32 18h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL Yes 55¢ $51 18h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $1 19h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $23 19h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $4 19h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $27 19h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL Yes 61¢ $3 19h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 16¢ $48 19h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY Yes 61¢ $183 19h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 48¢ $96 20h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $30 20h
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.25B SELL No 66¢ $169 20h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $72 20h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $27 21h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $3 21h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $236 21h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $104 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.38 · official $105.38 (match) · 155 history records