Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
09 0x09b2…1911 sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2,839now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$741
7 days−$537
14 days+$152
30 days+$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$333
other 46% −$313
crypto 8% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -8.5% -17.2% 29% 29% -32.9%
≤30d 20 +2.5% -7.3% 35% 35% -5.8%
≤90d 29 -8.5% -17.2% 38% 38% -8.5%
all 44 -26.0% -33.0% 34% 32% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 32% -11.6%
10% -39.4% 32% -20.1%
15% -45.3% 25% -27.8%
20% -50.7% 20% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$56 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$2,839
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions10
Markets (closed)44 / 54
History coverage94d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $601 $638 +$37 (+6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $539 +$39 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $481 $427 −$55 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $388 $414 +$25 (+7%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 36¢ 36¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Mexico 23¢ 22¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 35¢ 34¢ $126 $124 −$2 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $95 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $6 −$24 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $102 +$332 +325%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $46 +$109 +238%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $307 −$16 -5%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $90 +$224 +250%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $51 −$47 -92%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 13 $502 −$494 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $103 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $88 +$101 +114%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $503 +$589 +117%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $100 −$37 -37%
Pacers vs. Spurs Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $66 −$66 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Raptors vs. Nuggets Mar 21 $10 +$3 +33%
Hawks vs. Rockets Mar 21 $10 +$5 +55%
Lakers vs. Heat Mar 20 $10 +$9 +89%
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Mar 20 $30 +$8 +27%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bucks vs. Jazz Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pelicans Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
76ers vs. Nuggets Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Clippers Mar 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 17 $10 +$12 +122%
Grizzlies vs. Bulls Mar 17 $10 +$4 +45%
Suns vs. Celtics Mar 17 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $129 1h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 23¢ $205 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $204 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $203 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $296 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $291 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $307 18h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $4 35h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain $4 35h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $46 42h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $51 42h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 23¢ $102 42h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $494 2d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $65 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $29 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $452 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $411 2d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 46¢ $502 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $96 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $90 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,838.59 · official $2,838.64 (match) · 181 history records