Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:33:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
09 0x09b0…a3b6 sports 324 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$768 (+21%) realized +$768 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate69%223W / 101L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$160
7 days+$299
14 days+$397
30 days+$696
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$345
other 36% +$340
world 2% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +25.0% +13.1% 62% 60% +9.5%
≤30d 324 +42.4% +28.8% 69% 64% +7.9%
≤90d 324 +42.4% +28.8% 69% 64% +7.9%
all 324 +42.4% +28.8% 69% 64% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.8% 64% +7.9%
10% ← realistic here +16.5% 53% -2.4%
15% +5.2% 43% -11.9%
20% -5.1% 32% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$768
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses223 / 101
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)324 / 324
History coverage24d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 324 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $51 +$50 +97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $12 +$6 +52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $32 +$17 +52%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $32 +$19 +59%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $33 +$82 +250%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $33 −$8 -24%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $33 −$3 -10%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $32 −$4 -11%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $33 −$7 -20%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $33 −$4 -13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $33 −$2 -7%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $33 −$1 -4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $33 +$19 +57%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $33 +$17 +50%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $33 −$22 -65%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? Jun 19 $33 +$11 +32%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $23 +$10 +42%
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $33 +$10 +30%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $33 +$19 +58%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $33 +$4 +12%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $13 −$4 -32%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $33 −$3 -10%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 $0 -1%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $33 −$1 -4%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $33 +$11 +34%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $33 +$10 +31%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 +$4 +13%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $33 +$5 +14%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $33 +$22 +68%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $0 +$1 +278%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $33 +$11 +35%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $32 +$6 +20%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 +$43 +130%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $33 −$32 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 −$32 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $34 +$28 +83%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $33 +$29 +87%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $33 +$11 +35%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $33 +$3 +9%
Will Thor Akureyri win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $32 +$6 +19%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 +$7 +22%
Stabaek IF vs. Egersunds IK: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $33 −$6 -17%
Will Egersunds IK win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 −$2 -6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $33 −$1 -2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $33 −$12 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY No 44¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 48¢ $28 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 31¢ $18 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 45¢ $10 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 45¢ $8 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 83¢ $6 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $12 3h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 28¢ $33 9h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $32 10h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $32 10h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 26¢ $25 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $30 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 74¢ $29 11h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 32¢ $26 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? SELL No 48¢ $10 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? SELL No 48¢ $2 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? SELL No 48¢ $5 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? SELL No 48¢ $12 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 60¢ $31 11h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 38¢ $32 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $33 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $33 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $33 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $32 11h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 39¢ $33 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $33 11h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $33 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $31 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $21 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 805 history records