Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:46:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09b0…af6b world 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%26W / 53L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$5
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$37
other 20% +$1
sports 19% −$2
economics 17% −$1
politics 8% +$15
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 28 +0.1% -9.5% 43% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 42 -2.5% -11.8% 45% 0% -9.8%
all 79 -1.4% -10.8% 33% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses26 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 82
History coverage317d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $63 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $36 −$2 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $60 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $176 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $58 +$1 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $54 +$5 +8%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $60 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $27 +$2 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $104 −$2 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $79 −$9 -12%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $124 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $124 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $59 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $86 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $127 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $58 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $65 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $119 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $60 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $83 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $126 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $32 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $2 $0 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $33 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $160 −$33 -20%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $12 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $99 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $124 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $265 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $146 +$15 +10%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $662 −$2 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $598 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $657 +$1 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $117 +$1 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $596 $0 +0%
Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $10m? Aug 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will MAS-IPSP win the most seats in the next Bolivia Chamber of Deputi Aug 17 $9 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $63 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $47 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $15 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $63 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $34 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $36 39h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $41 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $19 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $6 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $7 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $47 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $51 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $59 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $40 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $58 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $58 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $64 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $64 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $59 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $7 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $48 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $15 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $18 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $27 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $60 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $54 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.93 · official $62.84 · 298 history records