Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:38:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
09 0x09af…9728 sports 464 markets active 12h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$65,796 (+11%) realized +$67,289 · open −$1,493
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%256W / 205L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$1,313per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$9,221est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,865
7 days+$11,834
14 days−$2,072
30 days+$38,142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$56,104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +17.7% +6.5% 60% 60% +3.5%
≤30d 231 +12.3% +1.6% 57% 57% -0.4%
≤90d 461 +9.1% -1.3% 56% 55% -0.8%
all 461 +9.1% -1.3% 56% 55% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 55% -0.8%
10% ← realistic here -10.7% 55% -10.3%
15% -19.4% 55% -19.0%
20% -27.3% 54% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,750) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,223 vs −$1,247 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$4,358
Realized+$67,289
Unrealized−$1,493
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses256 / 205
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$9,221
Open positions3
Markets (closed)461 / 464
History coverage60d
Avg bet$1,313
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 461 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ 40¢ $2,507 $2,021 −$486 (-19%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 51¢ 35¢ $2,268 $1,556 −$711 (-31%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 51¢ 37¢ $1,077 $781 −$296 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 193 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $19 +$16 +86%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $1,013 +$805 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $2,152 +$1,709 +79%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $478 +$482 +101%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 15 $956 −$942 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $1,580 −$1,554 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $630 −$621 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $446 −$439 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $477 −$470 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $1,183 +$772 +65%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1,010 +$1,151 +114%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $2,421 +$2,991 +124%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $2,066 −$2,033 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $1,183 +$1,060 +90%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $693 +$700 +101%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $365 +$354 +97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $420 +$362 +86%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $2,032 +$2,218 +109%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $2,380 +$2,824 +119%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $2,641 +$2,776 +105%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $570 −$562 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $2,029 +$1,817 +90%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $1,208 −$1,194 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $738 −$726 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $972 −$957 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $2,032 +$2,047 +101%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $2,650 −$2,268 -86%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1,015 −$1,000 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $2,337 −$2,300 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $1,856 +$1,811 +98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $3,005 −$2,538 -84%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $1,192 +$873 +73%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1,250 +$1,076 +86%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $1,015 +$954 +94%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $507 +$419 +83%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $507 +$407 +80%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $2,651 +$2,573 +97%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1,935 +$1,878 +97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $3,278 −$3,230 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $2,612 −$2,572 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $1,279 +$1,344 +105%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $2,739 −$2,700 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $1,016 +$1,068 +105%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $507 +$473 +93%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $1,833 +$1,851 +101%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $3,740 +$5,223 +140%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $4,015 +$4,055 +101%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $1,944 −$1,915 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $2,906 −$2,860 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $1,013 11h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 48¢ $956 11h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $19 12h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $1,580 12h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $630 12h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 47¢ $446 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $811 15h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $477 15h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $1,341 15h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $478 15h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 81¢ $1,955 34h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $1,183 37h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1,010 39h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $2,066 44h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 51¢ $2,301 44h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $2,421 44h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 52¢ $1,183 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $570 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $365 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $1,208 2d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 49¢ $693 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 45¢ $2,380 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $1,016 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $1,014 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $2,641 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $738 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $1,016 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $1,014 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $420 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $972 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,358.26 · official $4,358.26 (match) · 822 history records