Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:14:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09ad…3930 crypto 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$960 (-50%) realized −$955 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%22W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days−$122
14 days−$136
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$991
other 14% −$151
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -81.0% -82.8% 0% 0% -66.2%
≤30d 19 -51.5% -56.1% 16% 16% -57.3%
≤90d 69 -27.6% -34.5% 32% 32% -63.0%
all 69 -27.6% -34.5% 32% 32% -63.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 32% -63.0%
10% -40.8% 26% -66.6%
15% -46.5% 20% -69.8%
20% -51.7% 16% -72.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$28 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$955
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses22 / 47
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage56d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $10 $6 −$5 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $192 −$119 -62%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$1 -11%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -10%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $13 +$14 +109%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$7 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 09 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 09 $205 −$107 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 09 $48 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 09 $558 −$558 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 09 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 09 $205 +$54 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 09 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 09 $89 +$31 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 08 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 08 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 08 $3 +$10 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 08 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 08 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 08 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 08 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 08 $6 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 08 $1 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 19¢ $73 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $192 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 11d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $8 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $8 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $9 13d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 13d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 14d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 14d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $13 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 15d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 15d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 16d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 16d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 16d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $99 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $97 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $205 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $48 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $558 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.76 · official $5.76 (match) · 154 history records