Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
09 0x09ab…609a world 52 markets active 3h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%13W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$1
other 20% $0
politics 18% $0
crypto 6% $0
sports 5% −$1
tech 5% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 -0.6% -10.0% 44% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 16 -0.6% -10.0% 44% 0% -9.7%
all 50 -0.7% -10.2% 26% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses13 / 37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage301d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $23 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $23 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $45 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 31 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $56 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $77 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $37 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $14 −$2 -11%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $38 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $1 $0 -13%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Aug 29 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $7 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Aug 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 25 $4 $0 -1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 25 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 25 $35 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 25 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Aug 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 24 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $3 24h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 37h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $12 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $12 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $23 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $41 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $41 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 80¢ $4 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 80¢ $33 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 80¢ $37 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $23 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $14 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $37 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $32 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $5 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.77 · official $37.77 (match) · 215 history records