Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
09 0x09aa…1b94 other 8 markets active 3h ago coverage 400d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$125 · open +$101
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$450per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$103
world 2% −$31
politics 2% +$2
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 7 -12.1% -20.5% 86% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 0% -10.3%
10% -28.1% 0% -18.9%
15% -35.0% 0% -26.7%
20% -41.4% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$31 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

400d coverage
Net worth$504
Realized−$125
Unrealized+$101
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage400d
Avg bet$450
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $403 $504 +$101 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,599 +$2 +0%
US military action against Iran by Sunday? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 18 $31 $0 +1%
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 30 $29 +$2 +5%
Ethereum above $2,500 on May 27? May 26 $27 +$2 +7%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 18 $27 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $62 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $100 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $206 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $13 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $21 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $418 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $412 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $394 24h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $36 24h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $100 24h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $51 24h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $299 24h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $199 24h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $175 24h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $8 24h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $38 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $503.52 · official $503.52 (match) · 51 history records