Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
09 0x09a7…5b77 weather 176 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$138 (+11%) realized +$163 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%75W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days+$102
14 days−$60
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +26.9% +14.8% 53% 53% +18.4%
≤30d 163 +12.1% +1.4% 46% 46% +0.7%
≤90d 163 +12.1% +1.4% 46% 46% +0.7%
all 163 +12.1% +1.4% 46% 46% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 46% +0.7%
10% -8.3% 46% -8.9%
15% -17.1% 46% -17.7%
20% -25.3% 46% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$163
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses75 / 88
Open positions13
Markets (closed)163 / 176
History coverage29d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $16 $43 +$27 (+162%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 22? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 21? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 22? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 21? Yes 40¢ 34¢ $15 $13 −$3 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 21? Yes 41¢ 30¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 22? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 22? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? Yes 55¢ 65¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 21? Yes 41¢ 4¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 21? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $18 +$30 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 21 $16 +$22 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? Jun 20 $13 +$16 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 20 $8 +$7 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$12 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $14 +$24 +171%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 19 $15 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 19 $16 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 20? Jun 19 $18 −$17 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 +$11 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 +$11 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 +$14 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 19? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? Jun 18 $13 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 18 $8 +$11 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 18 $9 +$15 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 +$13 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$7 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 +$11 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 18? Jun 17 $9 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$4 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$14 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$11 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 17? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$13 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $7 +$8 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 22? BUY Yes 50¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 22? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 40¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 22? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 22? BUY Yes 44¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 25h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 25h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 21? BUY Yes 41¢ $16 25h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 21? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 21? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 25h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 25h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 51¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? BUY Yes 44¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 39¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.06 · official $152.07 (match) · 349 history records